Abstract

Babajide Sadiq MPH, DrPH1 , Perry Brown MSPH, DrPH1 , Fred W. Huffer PhD2 , Uloma Onubogu Ph.D3 , Matthew Dutton Ph.D1 , Alan Becker Ph.D1 , Saleh Rahman MD, Ph.D., MPH1

This study aimed to examine the impact of climatic variation on malaria in Ogun state, Nigeria. A 10-year time-series analysis from 2004 to 2013 was conducted to evaluate the relationship between climatic variables (i.e. rainfall, humidity, minimum and maximum temperature) and malaria cases in Ogun State, Nigeria. Cross-correlation analysis was performed to know the association between meteorological variable at lag 0 to 4 and the number of malaria cases. The ARIMAX model was then used to measure the relationship between them using the significant climatic variables. The results from this study indicated that for every one degree centigrade rise in maximum temperature, the number of malaria cases will decrease between 90.8 and 97.8 percent and a one degree rise in minimum temperature may be related to a decrease in the number of malaria cases between 93.4 and 99.4 percent and one degree rise in minimum temperature may be related to an increase in the number of malaria cases between 0.25 and 6.47 percent. In conclusion, temperature plays a significant role in malaria transmission in Ogun State, Nigeria.