Abstract

Leif Thomas Olson and Kathryn Freemark Lindsay

To optimize the use of scarce resources, it is imperative to target conservation investment wisely. We discuss the impact assessment of potential climate-driven shifts in species distributions on the future conservation utility of a present-day reserve design. We provide examples using breeding bird survey data for 150 species in the eastern USA, and two predicted future species distributions models. Using present-day distributions, this study systematically selects sets of units meeting a range of conser-vation targets; 10 to 100 occurrences of each species in the reserve network. Units provide coverage to 68 – 79% of bird species in the two future scenarios. Underrepresented species fall into two principal groups, those associated with northern tree species (Balsam fir Abies balsamea or Paper birch Betula papyrifera) and those linked to temperature variables. Changes in the geography of conservation prio-rity are highlighted by a ‘conservation priority surface’ and compared to existing protected areas. These techniques inform adaptive conservation management strategies and encourage the geographic target-ing of long-term conservation investment.