Abstract

Babajide Sadiq and Perry Brown

This study was aimed at investigating the changes in the trend of malaria cases and to know if Ogun state in Nigeria will be able to meet the millennium development goal for malaria by 2015 (which is malaria morbidity and mortality are reduced by 75% in comparison with 2005. Using a 10 year malaria historical data from 2004 to 2013, a trend analysis was performed on the malaria cases and rates to know if there is a monthly or yearly increase or decrease in malaria incidence and a time-series analysis (ARIMA model) was conducted to forecast malaria cases for 2014 and 2015. The results indicated a monthly increase in malaria cases by 0.7 percent and a yearly increase of 9.0 percent and a monthly rate of 1.749 cases per 100,000 people to a yearly rate of 20.98 cases per 100,000 people. The ARIMA model forecasted about 164.9% increase in cases compare to the 2005 malaria cases. In conclusion, Ogun State will likely not meet the millennium development goal for malaria by 2015.