Abstract

Catherine Heffernan1* and Jacob A. Dunningham2

In recent years, there has been a rise in applications of mathematical modelling in sexually transmitted infections. This paper outlines a new approach to mathematical modelling that tests intervention efforts on Chlamydia. The aim was to produce a simple model that can be used when new data comes to hand without the need to re-run the simulation. A simple model was developed to study the effects of interventions in lowering rates of Chlamydia in a high-risk population of 16 to 24 year olds. Parameters are informed by the best available data. The model was verified by running it backwards in time to see if it correctly ‘retrodicts’ rates of Chlamydia in the past. The model predicted that Chlamydia would disappear long-term if there were 45% condom use, annual check- ups and 23.5% successful contact tracing among the high-risk 16 – 24 year old age group. The model’s expressions can be applied readily to different populations of interest and to address specific questions, indicating that the model is a quick and easy tool to apply in public health policy making.