Abstract

Yu-Cheng Huang and Hantat Chen

Both stock returns and the term structure of interest rates are rich in information, in particular, they could be used to forecast economic activities. Nevertheless, it is necessary to further clarify the relation between stock returns and the term structure of interest rates, and compare the relation of the two variables with economic activities. Our research combined various research methods of time series, including VAR, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition to explore the interactions among stock returns, the term structure of interest rates and economic activities in Taiwan. Research result indicated that the causality existed not only in the relation between stock returns and industrial production but in the relation between stock returns and the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates (hereinafter “the spread”). In addition, when an abrupt shock happened to stock returns, it also had obvious influence on industrial production and the spread. But there is no causality or feedback in the interaction of the spread and industrial production, and the response of industrial production to the spread is not obvious, whether it is in the long-term or shortterm. These results indicated that in Taiwan the term structure of interest rates was not a good indicator of economic activities and stock returns were superior to the term structure of interest rates as the leading indicator.