Abstract

Kakuba Sultan Juma

Exploring factors likely to influence 2011 poll in Uganda is the main objective of this paper. The data for this study was obtained through a content analysis of election results (1996, 2001 and 2006) and interview, which was carried out in the period between July to October, 2010 across the different regions in the country, North, South, West, East and Central to ascertain the factors that are likely to drive the 2011 poll. Although Uganda’s ruling party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) under the leadership of Museven has been winning successive democratic elections since it transited into democratic rule in 1996; its support has been gradually and steadily declining. The study findings based on elections 1996, 2001 and 2006; and a random survey data from respondents across the different regions in the country through interviews, show that voters reward the incumbent president for fulfilling their demands. The study findings further reveal that factors such as discovery of oil and creation of new districts, infrastructural development among others will be central in influencing the choice of the electorates across these regions. The paper concludes on a point of how NRM the ruling party is likely to perform.