Production prediction of avocado, banana, mango, papaya, pineapple and coffee in Oromia regional state, Ethiopia

Addisu Hailu^*
*Correspondence: Addisu Hailu, Department of Agricultural Science, Oromia Agricultural Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Email:

Received: 21-Sep-2022, Manuscript No. IJAERDOA-22-75490; Editor assigned: 26-Sep-2022, Pre QC No. IJAERDOA-22-75490(PQ); Reviewed: 11-Oct-2022, QC No. IJAERDOA-22-75490; Revised: 22-Dec-2022, Manuscript No. IJAERDOA-22-75490(R); Published: 30-Dec-2022

Keywords

Forecast, Production, Fruits, CSA, Oromia

Introduction

The agro ecological conditions of Ethiopia favour the cultivation of various fruit crops that span from highland (like apple) to lowland (such as dates and cashew nut) fruits. Abundant and suitable land with different ranges of altitude, huge irrigation potentials, and ample labor force in the different parts of the country provide opportunity to produce tropical, sub-tropical and temperate fruits [1].

Fruit crops cultivation in Ethiopia had been a routine practice from time immemorial to the present day. According to CSA about 161,470.82 hectares of land is under fruit crops out of the total cropland area under small peasant holders. Bananas contributed about 59.43% of the fruit cropland area followed by avocadoes that contributed 18.94% of the area. More than 14,192,409.18 quintals of fruits was produced in the country. Bananas, mangoes, avocados, papayas, and oranges took up 63.30, 10.66%, 17.29%, 5.07% and 2.81% of the fruit production, respectively. There are also medium and large commercial fruit production farms in the country, most of which are concentrated in the eastern parts of the rift valley [2].

Literature Review

The production of avocado has become greater source of income for those involved in the value chain [3]. In addition to good source of income for farmers, fruit growing in gardens helps to reduce family budget on purchase of fruits. Fruit production is highly intensive and the fruit industry creates employment opportunities, particularly for farming communities.

Both fresh and processed fruits have huge potential domestic and export markets. Fruits with a high potential for export markets include avocado, apple, banana, citrus, grape, guava, mango, passion fruit, pineapple, papaya and strawberry [4]. The demand for Ethiopian wine is also high for both domestic and export markets. The major export market destinations for fruits from Ethiopia are the neighbouring countries like Djibouti, Sudan and Somalia. The United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the Russian Federation are among the dominant export market destinations [5].

Ethiopia has very limited number of agro processing enterprises.
Awash Winery and Castel Winery, with other few growers are engaged in the production of grapevines for the production of wine, fresh table and raisin grapes [6]. Merti processing plant processes orange concentrate, marmalade squash, and guava nectar [7]. Africa juice Tibila, share company produces blended
concentrate from mango, passion fruit and papaya [8]. At present, introduction of processed fruit products are quite significant in Ethiopia. Some fresh fruits have also been imported. For instance, about 350 metric tons of apple fruits were imported annually from South Africa, Iran, China and Israel. Demonstrations of various fruits have been made and contributed to the current fruits production throughout the country. This review paper highlights the status and future prospects of fruit production, consumption, market supply and area coverage in Oromia and Ethiopia.

Avocados, for long an essential part of the diets of many Latin Americans, have now been promoted to super fruit status also in North America, Europe, and Japan and increasingly amongst China’s wealthy. Rising consumption levels are currently met mainly through domestic productions and through supplies from relatively few net exporters. In 2013, only about 20% of global productions were exported to non-producer consumer countries. Production volumes range from 1.9 million tonnes (Mexico, 2016) to a couple of hundred tonnes (mostly small island states). The largest producers outside of LAC are Indonesia (305,000 t), Kenya (176,000 t), USA (173,000 t) and Rwanda (132,000 t). Yet, often high production does not translate into high exports as holds true for Indonesia and the USA. The top nine net exporting countries jointly supply 99% of global total net exports at a combined volume of about one million tonnes. Mexico is the dominant net exporter with a share of 59%, followed by Peru (12%), Chile (9%), Israel and South Africa (both 5%). Some of the leading producer/exporter countries like Peru (147%), the Dominican republic (111%) and Mexico (71%) recorded impressive production growth rates in the period 2010 to 2016. Israel, New Zealand and Brazil all recorded increases in production of about 30% over the same period. Spain and Kenya have been struggling to increase production and thus to take advantage of growing consumption levels. In general, growth in production levels seems to have been achieved mostly over the extensive margin.

According to report of MoA, projected future net export of top exporting countries can increase their exports on top of increasing productions for their domestic consumption, mainly through the conversion of (agricultural) land into avocado plantations rather than yield. Exports could more than double from around one million tonnes to nearly 2.6 million tonnes in 2030. These exports could be distributed as follows: Mexico (1 m t), Peru (600,000 t), Kenya (380,000 t), Spain 180,000 t), Chile (130,000 t), South Africa (100,000 t), Israel (95,000 t) and New Zealand (40,000 t). Therefore, to compute with this top exporting countries Ethiopia in general and Oromia in particular will be increasing avocado volume of production with quality standards by conversion of agricultural land to avocado plantations using suitability studies as a guideline. The main objectives of this nectar [7]. Africa juice Tibila, share company produces blended assessment are:

•To generate relevant information on main fruitproduction and consumption trend which is essential forplanning and policy direction

•To provide sufficient information and analytics of futurefruits production and consumption to guide interventiondecisions.

METHODS

The main source of data was the CSA data which is the most readily available and national representative source of data. Therefore, the CSA data of Meher season is used to analysis the trends of production, area, yield, household consumption, domestic sale and export of major fruit crops. FAOSTAT data from 2014/15 to 2020/21 were also used as export data in this report. For this report ARIMA model was used to forecast production, area coverage, yield, HH consumption, domestic sale and exports of selected fruit crops.

Results and Discussion

Avocado production trends and forecast

The avocado production in Ethiopia is largely limited to the domestic market characterized by low farm gate prices, which has together with a lack of technical production competences, hampered investments in seedling and fruit productions. Based on CSA meher season data the area coverage and total production of avocado during the last five years showed increasing trend in small scale farms (Figure 1). In the 2014/2015 production year, 536,978 quintals of avocado was produced in the country. The production increments for avocado were 0.2%, 20%, 25.3%, 4.12%, 23.2%, 134% in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively in Ethiopia. The avocado production increment from 2014/15 to 2020/21 were 12.7%, -0.15%, 3.1%, 39.98%, 31.7% and 150% in Oromia.

As indicated in Figure 1 and 2 the trends for the consumption of avocado was increasing in Ethiopia in general and in Oromia in particular. This result was in line with MoA report stated that over the past 50 years, there has been a clear and steady upward trend in the consumption of avocados across all regions of the world. Consumption levels have been picking up speed recently with total volumes doubling in about 15 years (1998 to 2013), now surpassing the five million tonnes per year mark. Avocado exports in Ethiopia is not increasing as shown Figure 1 according to CSA data from 2014/2015 to 2020/21 (Figure 2).

Projected avocado production, HH consumption, market supply and area coverage from 2022 to 2030

The forecasted avocado area coverage, production, HH consumption, domestic sale and exports for the year 2022 to 2030 were increasing as shown in Figure 3 and Table 1 in Oromia.

Avocado production with different scenarios

We examine two avocado production growth related investment scenarios. The first one is increasing yield from 105 quintals per hectare to 120 quintals per hectare in 2030 and the second one increasing avocado plantation area by 10 percent in each forecasted years. Predicted avocado yield will be 105 quintals per hectare in 2030 with existing production scenario and if we assume predicted yield increased to 120 quintals per hectare in
2030 by applying recommended full package of agronomic practices then avocado production will shift from 200,000 quintals to 600,000 quintals (Figure 4). Assuming area for avocado plantation will increase by 10 percent in each year then avocado production will shift from 200,000 quintals to 400,000 quintals (Table 1).

Banana production trends and forecasts in Oromia

Banana production, area coverage, HH consumption, sale and exports has also shown an upward trends in Ethiopia and Oromia (Figures 5 and 6). A spike in production, area and HH consumption is observed in the years of 2016 and 2020, a fall in 2018. The percentage change of banana production were of -7.9% from 2015 to 2016, 22.3% from 2016 to 2017, 8.3% from 2017 to 2018, 1.6% from 2018 to 2019, 7.4% from 2019 to 2020 and 66.6% from 2020 to 2021, respectively.

Predicted banana production and demand

The forecasted banana in area coverage, production and domestic Sale for the year 2022 to 2030 indicated increasing trends as shown in Figure 7 in Oromia.

Banana production with different scenarios

We examine two banana production growth related investment scenarios. The first one is increasing yield from 93 quintals per hectare to 100 quintals per hectare in 2030 and the second one increasing banana plantation area by 10% in each forecasted years. Banana predicted yield is 93 quintals per hectare in 2030 with existing production scenario and if we assume predicted banana yield will be increased to 100 quintals per hectare in 2030 by applying full package of agronomic practice then banana production will shifts from 2,420,393 quintals to 2,544,508 quintals. Assuming that area for banana plantation will be increased by 10 percent at each predicted years and then banana production will shift from 2,420,393 quintals to 2,662,433 quintals (Figure 8 and Table 2).

Mango production trends and forecasts

Mango production has shown ups from 2015 to 2019 and 2021 and downs in production, HH consumption and domestic sale in
2020 in Ethiopia as shown in Figure 9.

Mangos production, HH consumption and domestic sale have shown extreme ups and downs, in Oromia as shown in Figure 10. When comparing with the year mango production has spike in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 and falls in 2020 in Ethiopia and Oromia.

Predicted mango production, HH consumption and sale

The forecasted mango production, HH consumption and sale for the year 2022 to 2030 indicated an up and downs s shown in Figure 11 in Oromia. As indicated in Figure 11, observed value is fitted with the model.

Predicted mango production with different scenarios

We examine two mango production growth related investment scenarios. The first one will increase predicted yield from 23 quintals per hectare to 80 quintals per hectare in 2030 and the second one will increase mango plantation area by 5% in each forecasted years. Predicted mango yield will be 23 quintals per hectare in 2030 with existing production scenario and if we assume mango yield will be increased to 80 quintals per hectare in 2030 then mango production will shifts from 7,530.8 quintals to 25,431 quintals. Assuming area for banana plantation will be increased by 5 percent at each year and then mango production will be remains unchanged and decreasing trend (Figure 12). This may due to high infestation of pests and disease recently found on mango production (Table 3).

Papaya production trends and forecasts

Papaya production has shown ups from 2015 to 2019 and 2021 and downs in production, HH consumption and domestic sale in 2020 in Ethiopia as shown in Figure 13. Papaya production, HH consumption and domestic sale has shown downs in 2016-2018 and up in 2020 and 2021 in Oromia as shown in Figure 14.

Predicted papaya production, HH consumption and sale

The forecasted papaya area coverage, production, HH consumption, domestic sale and exports for the year 2022 to 2030 indicated ups and downs as shown in Figure 15 in Oromia.

Papaya predicted production with different scenarios

We examine two papaya production growth related investment scenarios. The first one will increase predicted yield 30% and the second one will increase papaya plantation area by 10% in each forecasted years.

Papaya predicted production will be 162,993.1 quintals in 2030 with existing production scenario and if we assume papaya yield will increase by 30% then papaya production will be shift from 62,993.1 to 211,891.1 quintals in 2030. Assuming area for papaya plantation will increase by 10 percent at each year and then papaya production will be shifts from 162993.1 to 179292 quintals (Figure 16 and Table 4).

Pineapple production trends and forecasts

In Ethiopia, pineapple successfully grows in South and Southwestern parts as small scale farming and the yield of the crop is low about 28.1 Qt/ha and 145.1 Qt/ha in Ethiopia and Oromia, respectively in 2020/21 as compared to global average pineapple yield of 67.5 t/ha. As indicated in the Figure 17, pineapple production, area, HH consumption and domestic sale has shown extreme ups and downs in Ethiopia as shown in Figure 17. Pineapple production has shown a spike in 2017, 2020 and 2021, and a fall in 2016, 2018 and 2019. HH consumption and sale also ups and downs trends in Ethiopia. In Oromia pineapple production was high in 2020/21 is indicated in Figure 18.

Predicted pineapple production, HH consumption and sale

The forecasted pineapple production, yield, HH consumption and domestic sale for the year 2022 to 2030 indicated an increasing for as shown in Figure 19 in Oromia.

Pineapple predicted production with different scenarios

We examine two pineapple production growth related investment scenarios. The first one will be increase yield from 303.5 quintals per hectare to 318.72 quintals per hectare in 2030 and the second one will be increased pineapple plantation area by 30% in each forecasted year.

Pineapple predicted production will be 483,987.4 quintals in 2030 with existing production scenario and if we assume pineapple yield will be increased to 318.72 quintals per hectare in 2030 then pineapple production will be shifts to 559,005 quintals. Assuming area for pineapple plantation will be increased by 30 percent in each year and then pineapple production will be shifts to 532,386 quintals (Figure 20 and Table 5).

Coffee production trends and forecasts

Coffee production, area coverage and HH consumption has shown increase ups and exports were up and down in Ethiopia (Figure 21). In case of Oromia coffee production, domestic sale, HH consumption and area coverage has shown extreme ups and downs as shown in Figure 22. Production, domestic sale, HH consumption and area have shown a spike in 2016 and 2019, and a fall in 2018, and 2021 in Oromia.

Predicted coffee production, HH consumption and sale

The forecasted coffee production, HH consumption, sale and area coverage for the year 2022 to 2030 will be slowly increasing as shown in Figure 23 in Oromia.

Predicted coffee production with different scenarios

We examine two coffee production growth-related investment scenarios. The first one will be increased coffee yield from 10 quintals per hectare to 10.5 quintals per hectare in 2030 and the second one will be increased coffee plantation area by 10% in each forecasted year. Predicted coffee production will be 2,850,345.7 quintals in 2030 with existing production scenario and if we assume coffee yield will be increased to 10.5 quintals per hectare in 2030 then coffee production will shifts from 2,850,345 to 52,999,286 quintals. Assuming area for coffee plantation will be increased by 10 percent in each year and then coffee production will be shifts from 2,850,345.7 to 3,135,380.3 quintals (Figure 24 and Table 6).

Conclusion

This assessment was focused on production prediction of avocado, banana, mango, papaya, pineapple and coffee in Oromia. The main objective of this assessment was to generate relevant information on main fruit production and consumption trend which is essential for planning and policy direction and to provide sufficient information and analytics of future fruits production and consumption to guide intervention decisions. For this study we mainly used the area and production of major crops survey report of the CSA from 2015-2021 and FAOSTAT from 2015-2021 for export of commodity at national level. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the future points of a time series data of fruits. The avocado production increment from 2014/15 to 2020/21 were 12.7%, -0.15%, 3.1%, 39.98%, 31.7% and 150% in Oromia. Banana production, area coverage, consumption, sale and exports has also shown upward trends in Oromia. Mango production was downward trends due to disease and insect pests. Papaya and coffee production trends were up and down (volatile trends). Pineapple was an emerging crop and production trends was increase from time to time. Based on the results possible recommendation/suggestion given are:

•Increasing the sustainable production of fruit isnecessary because the current supply does not meetregional, national and global nutrition requirements.

•Initiatives to make fruit production and supply chainsmore sustainable can be particularly strategic points forpenetrating to global market and meet demand of agroindustrial park developed in our country

•Managing pests and diseases in fruit crops is asignificant issue for small scale growers that can be bestaddressed through IPM strategies (mango and others).

•A fundamental shift toward more nutritious crops inmore diversified cropping systems is necessary.

Acknowledgment

I would like to thank Oromia agricultural research institute for budget support and other facilities. Special thanks goes to CSA and BoA to allow me to use online available data. I also thank FAOSTAT to use online data and information.

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